A RESEARCH REPORT FROM EPIC

Preliminary Read by Grade Three Retention Estimates

Prepared for Michigan Department of Education

August 2021

The Read by Grade Three Law aims to improve early literacy outcomes for students across the state through improved instruction, implementation of early monitoring and identification systems, required interventions for students identified as having a “reading deficiency” under the Law, and a requirement that students who do not meet a state standard for reading proficiency by the end of 3rd grade will be retained. The retention component of the Law was set to take effect in the 2019-20 school year. However, the requirement was waived as state testing was suspended due to COVID-19 school building closures. Now that state testing has resumed for the 2020-21 school year, 3rd grade students who scored below a state-determined cut-off on the ELA M-STEP assessment are for the first time eligible for retention under the Read by Grade Three Law.

MDE has asked EPIC to estimate retention outcomes for Michigan public school students in 2021 based on their scores on the 3rd grade ELA M-STEP assessment. In response, we have computed statewide retention eligibility rates, retention eligibility rates for subgroup classifications of tested students, and for subgroups of tested students in different school types and geographic locales. We have also calculated “lower bound estimates” of Read by Grade Three retention rates based on likely good cause exemptions to show a range of potential outcomes under the Law. To provide context for these rates, we also analyzed the proportion of 3rd grade students who took the 3rd grade ELA M-STEP assessment this year.