AUTHORS
Bryant Hopkins, EPIC Affiliated Researcher
Katharine O. Strunk, University of Pennsylvania
Salem Rogers, Michigan State University
A Working Paper From EPIC
Viral Change: Trends in Michigan Teacher Attrition and Mobility Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
October 2023
Educators and policymakers across the country have been raising alarms about a growing teacher shortage. In Michigan, where this study is situated, teacher shortages were so severe in the 2018-19 academic year that 2,500 classrooms were staffed by long-term substitutes – nearly ten times the number placed in classrooms five years prior. Such a high rate of vacancies is likely due to multiple factors, prominent among them the diminishing supply of new teacher graduates; between academic years 2011-12 and 2017-18, both enrollment in and completion of Michigan teacher preparation programs declined by more than 60%. In addition, teacher attrition has been steadily increasing in Michigan; the proportion of teachers leaving their districts increased from 5.2% in 2010-11 to 8.2% in 2018-19.
In this study, we use administrative data on more than 140,000 Michigan traditional public and charter school teachers in an interrupted time series (ITS) framework to understand how teacher attrition and supply may have shifted after the onset of the COVID 19 pandemic. In particular, we ask:
- How have teachers’ propensities to leave the Michigan public school system, switch districts, or switch schools shifted since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic?;
- Are these trends different across teachers who taught in communities that were disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic or those who taught in a remote or hybrid setting (relative to in-person) during the 2020-21 school year?; and
- Do these patterns differ across teachers with varying demographic characteristics and credentials, those assigned to schools with different student populations or districts in different locales, and teachers at traditional public schools compared to charter schools?
